TOMATO PASTE – STATISTICS REPORT - Q2 2019

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U.S. Processed Tomato Stocks-on-Hand Report for March 1, 2019

Total inventories of U.S. processed tomato products are approximately 8.2 million tons, stated on a raw product equivalent basis, as of March 1, 2019, according to a report released today by the California League of Food Producers. Inventory is down 6.2% from the prior year level. Apparent disappearance of tomato stocks has increased 5.3%, totaling approximately 10.4 million tons during the nine-month period of June 1, 2018 to March 1, 2019, as compared to the prior reporting period.

Total bulk tomato paste stocks, including inventory held for remanufacture, were estimated to total approximately 6.1 million tons, on a raw product “paid-for tons” equivalent basis, as of March 1, 2019.

The U.S. bulk tomato paste-for-sale inventory on March 1, 2019 was approximately 4.2 million tons, on a raw product “paid-for tons” equivalent basis.

CLFP statistics reports are estimates, assuming 100% reporting, of the total U.S. processed tomato supply based on voluntary reports from processors throughout the United States. Participating processors handle approximately 90.2% of total U.S. tonnage of processing tomatoes, and 96% of total U.S. paste production.

The 2018-2019 U.S. Processed Tomato Supply and Movement reported is based on 90.2% of the industry reporting data. All numbers are rounded to the nearest 1,000 lbs. for the purpose of this report.

March

2017-2018

2018-2019

%+ / –

2018-2019

Inventory June 1 of prior reporting year

7,669,000

5,872,000

-23.4%

5,872,000

Pack

11,005,000*

12,785,000**

+16.2%

12,785,000**

Total Supply

18,674,000

18,657,000

-0.1%

18,657,000

Assuming 100 % reporting

(actual – estimated 90.2% of Industry reporting

March 1 Inventory

8,785,000

8,238,000

-6.2%

7,432,000

9 Month Disappearance

9,889,000

10,419,000

+5.3%

11,225,000

Monthly Disappearance

1,099,000

1,158,000

+5.4%

1,247,000

Total bulk Paste physical Inventory , March 1

Estimated over 85% of industry reporting this data

6,204,000

This report is an estimate of total U.S. supply and demand for processed tomato products. Reports are based on voluntary pack and inventory reports furnished by participating U.S. processors.

All positions are stated on a “raw product tons” equivalent basis.

CLFP “Pack Year” begins June 1 and ends May 31.

2017-2018 pack year statistics based on reports from processors handling 91.8% of U.S. tonnage. 2018-2019 pack year statistics based on reports from processors handling 90.2% of U.S. tonnage.

* 2017-2018 Pack based on PTAB’s final report (10/26/2017) of 10,464,000 for California (rounded to the nearest 1,000lbs. for purposes of this report), plus the reported pack production by the USDA/NASS 2017 Vegetable Summary by other states (541,800) released February 2018.

* * 2018-2019 Pack based on PTAB’s final report (10/27/2018) of 12,276,000 for California (rounded to the nearest 1,000lbs. for purposes of this report), plus the reported pack production by the USDA/NASS 2018 Vegetable Summary by other states (508,492) released March 2019.

The latest news on Tomato Market from our associate Conesa, Spain

Over 15,000 acres have been affected by hail that hit the south valley in mid-May. The impact varies from light to moderate to heavy. Several plantation fields reported a total crop loss. In some cases, farmers decided to quit farming and claim insurance due to a natural disaster.

The total IPC pack will be reduced.

The weather in the month of May has been very wet with lower temperatures than normal. This is slowing down the maturation process and is also creating an environment for disease and pest infestation, especially on those fields that have been hit with hail.

The wet weather has further delayed Conesa’s late plantings.

The northern valley is extraordinarily late due to the adverse climate. Very little will be harvested in July and plantation will continue until June, which means the harvest will extend into the month of October.

All these factors are placing unexpected pressure on the price of tomatoes and most likely the price will be higher than that of the 2018 crop.

Assuming California packs +/- 11.0 tons, the inventory levels will be well below average and potentially the lowest since 2006. We will update the charts in our next newsletter edition.