Crop Updates – Orange - Q4 2022

The average industrial yield on fruit for the 2022/23 season is estimated at 269.3 boxes for the production of 1 MT of frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) – 66 brix equivalent. Considering a crop estimated by Fundecitrus of 316.95 million boxes (40.8 kg) and consumption in the Brazilian domestic fresh fruit market of around 40 million boxes, the estimate for the volume of oranges destined for the processing industry is 276.95 million boxes for CitrusBR’s members and non-members. With the above figures, it is possible to estimate that total orange juice production in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro would be approximately 1.028 million MT of FCOJ 66 brix equivalent.

The frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) futures market has generally been less volatile over the past month ranging between USD 1.63 – 1.77 per lb, but the market rallied hard at the end of August up to USD 1.99 per lb before falling back off again. Traders say the market was relatively quiet until last week, but bullish news of poor inventory projections for the start of next season (June 2023) from CitrusBR created speculative buying.

The 2022/23 crop in Brazil was expected to be much better than last year and there was hope that the larger production would bring relief to the concerns over low stocks levels. However, CitrusBR has predicted a flat net inventory from this year to next. In addition, traders say they have also heard that the crop in Mexico is going to be lower, mostly from the North, with a possibly lower supply from both Florida and Mexico coupled with Brazil may result in flat inventories.