The 2023 winter crop in Thailand has been delayed due to a lack of raw materials. The high prices the farmers were receiving during the Summer crop encouraged them to harvest as much as they could during the season, which has resulted in unripe and small fruit being harvested over the past month. The larger processors there only began to run fruit two weeks ago, instead of two months ago, and are still only receiving 200 MT per day – the bare minimum needed to keep the factories running. The smaller packers began crushing fruit in October. The monsoon season has not yet finished in Thailand and temperatures are lower than average – this has led to lower ratios which are now down to 18.
The Indonesian crop is expected to be reduced by more than 10% due to the severe drought in Q3 2023, despite irrigated fields that provides coverage to around 60-70% of the country’s plantation with water reservoirs providing supply for up to three months.
Moreover, ‘a quite active market’ was also described for PJC, with a large Indonesian processor confirmed to be fully booked for H1 2024. Prices for PJC in Indonesia are in line with those in Thailand and sources consider rates in H2 2024 “should be above the USD 2,800/MT FOB level”.