CROP UPDATES: ORANGE JUICE - Q4 2023

BRAZIL

Estimated fruit drop rate is too high because the OTC (Oxytetracycline) trunk injections to combat HLB (greening disease) have been working well. There is speculation that the large producers will close their processing plants before Christmas.

Fruit juice ratios have been low for most of the season and are still on the low side at 14-17. Juice yields remain poor at around 300 boxes per MT of FCOJ. Both the low ratios and the poor juice yields are reportedly a consequence of farmers harvesting fruit early due to the fear of fruit droppage brought about by the increase in incidents of HLB in Brazil. Analysts suggest the issues with harvesting fruit early and the subsequent lower fruit quality will probably continue for the coming years until HLB can be brought under control.

USA

There were suggestions that the USDA’s initial forecast might be too low and analysts reiterate that the estimated fruit drop rate by the USDA is too high because the OTC trunk injections to combat HLB (greening disease) have been working well.

In addition, the fruit sizing looks slightly better in the groves at the moment, so there is speculation that the December estimate could be slightly higher. Nevertheless, the harvest has only just begun and so it is still difficult to make any predictions.