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Welcoming the New Mango Season - Q1 2019

Welcoming the New Mango Season

Western region-Alphonso Comparative report:

Region	February 2019	February 2018
Ratnagiri Temp:H:32°CandL:18°C Precipitation: 0 mm	Limited fruit formation observed. however, farmers expect the fruit availability to be better compared to last year	Flowering was delayed at this time.
Devgad Temp:H:32°CandL:18°C Precipitation: 0 mm	Flowering has just begun. The season is delayed and farmers expect fruit availability to be on the lower side compared to last year	Flowering was delayed at this time.
Dapoli Temp:H:32°CandL:17°C Precipitation: 0 mm	Flowering has begun. The season is delayed compared to last year.	Flowering was delayed at this time.
Varsad Temp:H:32°CandL:17°C Precipitation: 0 mm	Flowering has begun. Though the temperature has a large differential and farmers expect a good season when compared to last year	Initial flowering had begun in February.

Southern region-Alphonso Comparative report:

Region	February 2019	February 2018
Chittoor, Kodur, Kadapa, Dhamalacheruv & Irala	The season is not looking favorable. Farmers are expecting only 30 – 40%	Flowering has commenced.

Temp:H:32°CandL:23°C Precipitation: 0 mm	fruit availability compared to last year
Krishnagiri & Karnataka Region Temp:H:35°CandL:25°C Precipitation: 0 mm	Flowering is completed. It looks like fruit availability might be lower compared to last year	Flowering was close to completion

Southern region-Totapuri Comparative report:

Region	February 2019	February 2018
Chittoor, Kodur & Kadapa Temp:H:32°CandL:23°C Precipitation: 0 mm	Flowering is visible. The fruit availability is likely to be like last year subject to timely rain before harvest.	Flowering has commenced.
Dhamalacheruv & Irala Temp:H:32°CandL:24°C Precipitation: 0 mm	Good fruit setting observed. Farmers expect a good crop from this region.	Flowering has commenced.

Crop Influence: Western Alphonso:

Bearish Scenarios – The Western region has seen higher temperatures over the last one week. If the temperature consistently crosses 35 °C or even 40 °C in February or March, this might cause an early drop of flowering or small fruits. Manufacturers have given an indication about the possibility of the GCC banning fresh Indian Alphonso due to lack of pesticide control. This will leave the retail and processing market with an excess of fruits.

Bullish Scenarios – Conducive weather with minimum temperature differential (high and low) could lead to a bumper crop of fruits for both quality and availability.

Southern Alphonso:

Bearish Scenarios – Due to the poor quality of the southern Alphonso in 2018, manufacturers are expecting a lot of customers to shift to western Alphonso, which could lead to excess Alphonso fruit in the South. Additionally, if there is not enough rainfall in this region, this could negatively affect the crop.
Bullish Scenarios – if there is timely rain before the season, farmers expect a good crop.

Southern Totapuri:

Bearish Scenarios – Last year manufacturers and farmers have got the support from the government for pricing. We might see the same situation if there are additional fruits this year.
Bullish Scenarios – if there is timely rain before the season, farmers can expect good crop.

Overall Summary: Summary of 2019 is key to the economy due to the general elections. This might cause disturbance in fruit and cash availability for the local farmers and traders. In related news, the current Indian government is exerting pressure on banks to increase lending to small and medium enterprises. This should ease the working capital situation for the industry.

Analysts suggest, that the industry in India will process much less this year due to high stock levels. They also expect that the raw material output will be lower following two good annual crops in a row.