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ORANGE JUICE CROP UPDATES - Q4 2025

USA: Florida

Florida’s 2024/25 orange crop is forecast at 12.15 million boxes, a modest rise of 150,000 boxes from the previous estimate. Of this, 4.60 million are early and mid-season oranges, and 7.55 million boxes are Valencia varieties.

While growing conditions have largely been favourable, a recent heatwave and dry spell in Tampa have caused some concern. Nonetheless, forecasts suggest rainfall will return soon, maintaining overall crop stability.

Brazil

According to Fundecitrus, Brazil’s 2025/26 crop is projected at 314.6 million boxes. Industry consensus supports this estimate, though some expect a smaller final volume due to higher-than-anticipated fruit drop rates. Quality remains steady, supported by consistent juice ratios and a uniform bloom. However, limited carry-over stock from last season is expected to keep high-quality juice in short supply.

Mexico

Mexico’s 2024/25 orange crop finished with production 30% below the annual average, reducing FCOJ output to 85,000 MT, down from 122,000 MT. With no remaining stocks available, spot prices currently range between USD 4,600-4,800/MT. Many buyers are holding off until Brazil’s new crop clarifies future pricing.

Futures & Market Outlook

FCOJ futures rose sharply to USD 3.44/lb in July following the announcement of a proposed 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian imports, before stabilising near USD 2.25/lb. Analysts anticipate a return to USD 2.00–3.00/lb should tariffs be revised to a lower rate of 15%. The coming months will hinge on tariff outcomes, storm activity, and new crop forecasts from Brazil and the U.S.