USA – Florida
The USDA’s latest forecast for Florida’s 2024/25 orange crop stands at 11.6 million boxes, showing a marginal increase of less than 1% from the previous estimate. However, this figure represents a significant 36% decline compared to last season’s final production.
The non-Valencia orange forecast has been slightly adjusted downward to 4.58 million boxes, which includes a navel orange projection of 100,000 boxes. Meanwhile, the Valencia orange forecast shows a small upward revision to 7.05 million boxes.
Brazil
The Brazilian orange industry is anticipating a significant rebound this season, with Fundecitrus releasing its first official forecast of 314.6 million boxes for the 2025/26 crop. This represents a substantial 36% increase over last season’s production of 230.9 million boxes, potentially adding an extra 200,000 tonnes of FCOJ equivalent to global supplies.
Harvesting operations have begun with early varieties like Hamlins, and the campaign is expected to reach full swing within the next six weeks. Juice yields are currently at 300–310 boxes per tonne of FCOJ, with Hamlin ratios between 10–13, which are normal for this stage.
Favourable weather, moderate temperatures, and adequate rainfall are supporting crop development. Most fruit comes from the second bloom, offering more uniform quality but possibly a shorter harvesting window. Quality will largely depend on growers allowing fruit to mature fully.
Spot market prices have declined to BRL 43–47 per box from BRL 50–66 last month. Although higher output may ease last season’s supply constraints, quality improvements will rely on harvesting practices and bloom development.
