USA – Florida
The USDA’s latest forecast for Florida’s 2024/25 orange crop remains at 12.0 million boxes, marking a 33% decrease from last season. Non-Valencia production is forecasted at 5.0 million boxes, with smaller fruit sizes and higher droppage rates. The Navel forecast is 150,000 boxes, while Valencia production is projected at 7.0 million boxes, with average fruit size and higher-than-expected droppage.
The early and mid-season harvest is completed, and the Valencia harvest is progressing, with slight improvements anticipated. Juice ratios are 14.86, down from 15.95 last year, with yields at 5.83 gallons/box, up from 5.68 gallons/box. The crop is expected to wrap up by mid-May. Local conditions include a cool winter and ample rain, aiding the potential for a healthy bloom.
Brazil
The forecast for Brazil’s 2024/25 crop stands at 223.14 million boxes, a 3.4% increase from earlier projections. However, juice yields remain low, with fruit ratios affected by persistent rains. Brazil’s orange juice exports saw a decline in volume (-19.7%), but revenue rose by 42.7%, driven by higher prices.
For the upcoming 2025/26 season, Brazil’s crop is expected to improve, though the ongoing challenge of greening disease, affecting 40-45% of trees, could continue to impact production.
