LEMON JUICE CROP UPDATES - Q4 2024

Argentina’s lemon juice market has undergone a complete turnaround, with carry-over stocks eliminated and demand from key markets like Europe, US, and China driving prices upward. Processors are now sold out, with forward quotes expected by February 2025.

The latest estimations on fruit production from the crop are around 1.4 million MT, 5% lower than last season. In addition, juice yields were down by 5 -10% and this is attributed, in part, to the frosts at the beginning of July. Demand has reportedly picked up over the past few months, which some industry sources say could be due to the severe lack of orange juice on the global market. The combination of lower lemon juice production and increasing demand has led to elimination of the weighty carry over stocks in Argentina.

The situation has totally changed over the past few months and many processors in Argentina are already sold out. Traders in Europe agree that supplies have been significantly drawn down with some delays in shipments.

As mentioned, demand has recovered and buyers are now realizing that the abundant cheap supplies of lemon concentrate seen over the past two years are no longer available.

Buyers in the main markets such as Europe, US, China and Japan are now looking to secure supplies as a result. Many have already covered until March/April, others are making enquiries for delivery until summer 2025 and some are covered for the entire 2025 anticipating the appreciation of prices.

Processors who have sold out indicate that they will start providing forward quotes in February next year, in preparation for the 2025 crop.