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Exclusive Report on the Big Four Pineapple Juice Producers

Overview

The Big Four Pineapple Juice Producers:
Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia and Costa Rica (85-90%)

Pineapple Juice Production Countries in PJC and NFC based on Tonnage (Philippines* in PJC equivalent)

(volume in ‘000 MT)

Processed Volume

PJC Export

NFC Export

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019F

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019F

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019F

Thailand

1,522

1,590

1,811

1,650

1,105

85

85

105

110

85

*

*

*

*

*

Philippines*

989

1,000

1,120

1,100

1,050

53

54

60

59

56

*

*

*

*

*

Indonesia

657

530

762

730

780

22

14

30

32

34

*

*

*

*

*

Costa Rica

416

440

458

494

444

59

35

30

27

27

121

165

171

148

148

Kenya

230

210

200

250

210

12

12

11

11

10

*

*

*

*

*

South Africa

90

90

100

100

100

11

13

11

10

13

*

*

*

*

*

Others

345

385

300

260

255

18

20

11

7

7

*

*

*

*

*

Total

4,249

4,245

4,751

4,584

3,944

262

233

258

257

232

121

165

171

148

148

* : Quantities are not significant

Pineapple juice producers highlights :

  • Thailand’s production in 2019 expected to drop to 1.1 million MT.
  • Philippines remains stable over the years.
  • Costa Rica produces more in NFC.
  • Indonesia’s production keeps growing steadily. But increase in Indonesia’s production will not be able to substitute the shortfall of other countries.

Global Demand for Pineapple Juice Concentrate in the last 5 years

World Wide : 270,000 MT

* Demand based on PJC Equivalent

Source: ITC Trade Map, GGP Analysis

Costa Rica Pineapple Landscape

Costa Rica Pineapple Market Figure (2012-2019) (Export Tonnage in million MT; Price USD/MT)

Source: GGP Analysis, www.sistemas.procomer.go.cr

Highlight

  • Fresh Pineapple Export Price remains stable.
  • NFC Price had reached the lowest point. Current NFC Price is bounce back to a reasonable price level at USD 600/MT.
  • Competing for raw material.
  • Fresh USD 350-400/MT
  • Processed USD 50-100/MT

Thailand Pineapple harvest tonnage (Fresh + Processed) is decreasing by 17%, compared to previous cycle

Thailand Pineapple Harvest Tonnage (in Million MT)

Source : FAO, Thai Statistic Office, GGP analysis

Pineapple harvested tonnage trend in last 2 cycles:

  • Pineapple cultivation in Thailand has a 6 year cycle.
  • Average volume in the last cycle (2013-2018) drop by 400kMT (-17%) compare to the previous cycle.
  • 2019 drop in volume is not because of El Nino.
  • The downtrend in volume is likely to continue because unlike other popular crops such as mango, jackfruit, rubber, etc., pineapple is more labor intensive.
  • Consolidation of pineapple industries in Thailand:

23 Canneries (2011) ➡️ 19 Canneries (2017)  ➡️ 18 Canneries (2019)

Summary Thailand: Lowest Tonnage in last 20 years

Thailand Harvest Tonnage for Processed Pineapple (Harvest Tonnage in 000 MT; Price in Baht/Kg)

Source : GGP Analysis, Thai Statistic Office

Highlight

  • Due to the very low prices of fresh pineapple in Q4/2017 and 2018, the farmers did not take care of the plantation. Hence total production, fruit quality and fruit size were adversely affected.
  • The impact of low quality and smaller size of the fruit during H1/2019 has resulted in lower production volume.
  • The peak season for summer Crop is May – Jun, however the fruit harvested in the month of May is less than half of normal volume. Tonnage for May 2019 = 82k MT; 2018 = 194k MT; 2017 = 181k MT.
  • Foreseeing the low tonnage will continue during winter Crop 2019 (Q4/2019) and 2020.
  • Farmer’s normal yield per Rai is around 8 Ton (50 Ton/Ha), and now is only 4-5 Ton (25-31 Ton/Ha).

Summary Philippines: Dry Spells Impact in H1/2019

Highlight

  • The Philippines have been facing the dry spells from March to May 2019.
  • Weather in H2/2019 is expected to be normal.
  • 2019 production is slightly less compared to 2018.

Summary Indonesia: Enduring drier weather in 2019

Rainfall Trend in Lampung (Indonesia)

(rainfall in mm)

GGP’ Deepened Water Reservoir

Highlight

  • The Dry season had turned to a ‘long drought’ continued until October 2019, with no rainfall in July & August 2019.
  • Enduring the dry weather conditions, GGP has deepened some reservoir to anticipate the drought.
    The production in 2019 is expected to be 780,000 MT (2018: 730,000 MT).
  • However, the increase of Indonesia’s production will not
    be able to substitute the shortfall of other countries.

Given the declining trend of Thailand Pineapple tonnage, GGP continues to grow its production volume

GGP & Thailand Pineapple Tonnage for Processing (Pineapple Tonnage in Million MT)

Source: ITC Trade Map, Thai Statistic Office, GGlPysAisna

Highlight

  • Thailand’s production is estimated to reach 1.3 – 1.4 million MT in 2020.
  • GGP has reached more than 50% of Thailand’s production.
  • 2019 = 650,000 MT
  • 2020 = 700,000 MT

World’s Processed Pineapple Producers

Pineapple Juice Concentrate Producers (volume in ‘000 MT)

Processed Volume

PJC Export

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019F

2020F

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019F

2020F

Thailand

1,522

1,590

1,811

1,650

1,105

1,300

85

85

105

110

85

93

Philippines*

989

1,000

1,120

1,100

1,050

1,100

53

54

60

59

56

58

Indonesia

657

530

762

730

780

830

22

14

30

32

34

36

Costa Rica

416

440

458

494

444

450

83

68

64

57

57

55

Kenya

230

210

200

250

210

210

12

12

11

11

10

10

South Africa

90

90

100

100

100

100

11

13

11

10

13

12

Others

345

385

300

260

255

250

18

20

11

7

7

9

Total

4,249

4,245

4,751

4,584

3,944

4,240

286

266

292

286

262

273                                              

                                                   Highlight

  • Thailand Harvest in 2020 expected to reach 1.3 million tonnes.
  • Philippines Harvest remain stable over the years.
  • Indonesia Harvest in 2020 will be the highest in history.
  • Costa Rica, conversion of NFC to PJC is about 30,000 MT.
    Total Costa Rica’s production in PJC equivalent is 60,000 MT per year.

Thailand PJC Price & Fruit Price Trends

Source: GGP Analysis from various information