CROP UPDATES: APPLE JUICE

Growing conditions for next season in Poland were favourable until a cold snap hit the orchards between 20-23 April. Fruit maturation was occurring three weeks earlier than usual and the freeze event has unfortunately happened at a time when the apple trees are still blooming. The flowering itself has been very strong, but the frost did cause damages to all varieties, say analysts. Day temperatures were also very cold during the aforementioned period, which is likely to hamper pollination.
While it is still too early to get a handle on the extent of the damage, industry sources suggest that both the processing industry and fresh market will be managing a lower crop than initially expected, particularly in the southern regions, where production in some of the areas could be cut-back by as much as 40%. There was hope that Poland could produce up to 5.0 million/MT this season, but analysts say the crop is more likely to produce the same volumes as last season. Nevertheless, the industry needs to see the fruit set before any more accurate estimates can be made.
Last season Poland produced an estimated 3.5 million/MT. Production of apple juice concentrate from the last crop is now estimated at 250,000-265,000/MT, compared with estimations last month of 230,000-260,000/MT.

There is still some processing of 2023 apples from cold store stocks and prices for industrial fruit for concentrate purposes range between PLN0.85-0.87/kg, against PLN0.85-0.95/kg last month. Apples for NFC purposes are priced higher at PLN0.90-1.05/kg – these higher quality apples make up the majority of the volumes still on hand, say industry sources.
Spot offers for apple concentrate from Poland are between EUR 1,850-1,900/MT 70 brix 2.0-2.5% acid ex-factory Poland – similar to last month. But many producers have pulled out of the market for the moment until there is a clearer picture on damage from the freeze.
Analysts suggest that the cold snap is likely to mean that price levels will not ease much, if at all, during the 2024/25 season.
Demand has reportedly been steady, and uptake did ramp up slightly last month, mainly from European buyers. Polish supplies have been too expensive for US buyers this season, and this is reflected in much lower imports. The US market still needs coverage ahead of the next crop there and there is still expected to be some demand for NFC supplies from both Europe and the US over the next few months. The news of the recent cold snap could increase demand from those buyers who were expecting a bigger crop this season.

Offers for concentrate out of the Ukraine and Moldova are slightly below Polish prices or, in some cases, similar. There are still unsolved problems with Ukraine’s market entry to the EU without tariffs. This has resulted in much lower direct exports from Ukraine to the EU.
The Polish industry is making efforts to solve this as well as continuing to hold farmer protests in a bid to bring more of a focus on supporting raw material price policies within Poland.
Asking prices in Turkey are ranging at EUR 1,800-1,900/ MT 70 brix low acid FOB Turkey, compared with EUR 1,750/MT last month.
Analysts say many other countries in Europe also experienced the freeze event and so the total European crop will be cut back to some extent.

Apple supplies in China are fairly limited. Production of apple concentrate from last season is not expected to be higher than 420,000 MT.
The bloom for next season in western China has been hampered by heavy winds and other adverse weather conditions and the next crop there is predicted to be cutback by 20- 25%. The overall crop in China is not expected to be any bigger than the previous 2023/24 crop.

CROP UPDATES: APPLE JUICE - Q2 2024