USA
- The USDA’s current forecast on Florida’s 2023/24 orange crop has been lowered by 1.0 million boxes to 18.8 million boxes. If realized, this will be 19% higher than last season’s final production.
- The forecast of non-Valencia orange production is unchanged at 6.80 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is 180,000 boxes. The non-Valencia harvest is over for the season.
- The forecast of Valencia orange production has been reduced by 1.00 million boxes to 12.0 million boxes. The final fruit size is below the average, requiring 271 pieces to fill a 90lb box. The final fruit droppage at 50%, is above the average.
- Only 50% of the Valencia crop has been harvested so far, so there could be another small cut to the forecast, say analysts.
BRAZIL
- The 2024–25 orange crop forecast for Brazil’s São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on May 10 by Fundecitrus and its cooperators, is 232.38 million 90-pound boxes. The projected volume represents a significant drop of 24.36% as compared to the previous crop of 307.22 million boxes.
- While the forecast is substantially down from the 2023–24 season, it is close to the average harvest for the last decade. Should this forecast hold true, it will be the second smallest crop since 1988–89, when forecasts using the objective method began to be performed in Brazil’s citrus belt.
- Climate is the main cause for the drop in production. This season, the combination of high temperatures, high evapotranspiration rates and an intense water shortage during the crucial period of flowering and fruit setting resulted in a low number of fruits per tree. The forecast of drier weather over the next six months is expected to continue impacting the crop. This will further hinder fruit growth and increase the challenge of keeping groves supplied with water, even where irrigation systems are installed.
