CROP UPDATES: ORANGE JUICE - Q1 2023

BRAZIL

There was heavy rains & sever cold weather record in the main citrus belt of Brazil which led to significant damage for the orange crop besides very low yield of the fruits which resulted in manufacturers may need double the quantity from fresh oranges to produces same quantity of orange juice concentrate.

The 2022/23 orange crop in Brazil has now wound up and the current on production is at 314 million boxes.

 

UPTAKE

USA

The USDA’s forecast on production from Florida’s 2022/23 orange crop is 16.1 million boxes. If realized, this will be 61% less than last season’s final production. Current fruit size for Valencia is below the minimum and is projected to be below the minimum at harvest, requiring 277 pieces to fill a 90lb box. Current drop page is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest. Harvest of Valencia oranges is still in the early stages.

The significant decrease in Florida’s production this year is due to damage from hurricane Ian which hit the citrus belt at the end of September 2022.With the added hinderance of citrus greening, the fruit drop is incredibly high at the moment with Valencia’s at 64% and non-Valencia’s at 76%.

 

MEXICO

Production in Mexico is now winding down and local industry sources say that processing will be very limited after Easter.

The industry made concerted efforts to source as much fruit possible in spite of fruit pricing being up to three times more expensive than usual. However, demand from the fresh market remains strong, leaving processing volumes around 40% below last year.

Processors say they have been producing juice with 20-22 ratio, but only in limited volumes. They add that they will need some of these volumes to blend with the early season juice.

THE FUTURE MARKET

The main driver for the futures market continues to be supply issues. Mexico is delivering some volumes of juice to the US market, but this will stop soon. The big question mark is the supply from Brazil ahead of the 2023/24 crop. With poor supply from the domestic market in the US, the volume of NFC arriving from Brazil continues to increase.

There is still expected to be a shortage of high ratio juice on the global market in the near term, but ratios have come up in Mexico which has brought some relief.