APPLE JUICE CROP UPDATES - Q1 2025

In Poland, limited processing has occurred from cold store apples this past month. The official 2024/25 crop estimate stands at 3.4 million MT, but doubts remain about reaching this target. By season’s end, production of apple juice concentrate is expected to be between 200,000-250,000 MT. Prices for industrial fruit range from PLN 1.05-1.10/kg. Medium acid concentrate is priced at EUR 2,200-2,400/MT and high acid concentrate at EUR 2,500- 2,600/MT, showing a slight decrease compared to last month. Despite quiet market conditions, analysts expect demand to increase in April as the European and Chinese harvests become clearer.

In terms of supply, Poland could have around 100,000 MT in stock by the end of December, and imports of 35,000-45,000 MT in the second half of 2024 further complicate stock calculations.

Regional Updates:

Turkey: Low acid concentrate offers are EUR 2,200-2,400/MT (FOB Turkey), with exports up by 8% this season due to rising costs and anticipated US tariffs.

Moldova: Fresh apple stocks remain good, though 220,000 MT were processed, less than forecast, resulting in limited concentrate availability.

Ukraine: Ukrainian concentrate is priced at EUR 2,150-2,200/MT (ex-factory).

China

Following the Chinese New Year, processing has resumed with raw material costs at USD 0.20/kg. The production forecast is now 480,000 MT, surpassing the expected 350,000-400,000 MT. Exports are strong, and stocks are low due to tariff avoidance. Prices for Chinese concentrate range from USD 1,550-1,700/MT (FOB China), but future price trends are uncertain, influenced by tariff developments.