COCOA MARKET REPORT – Q4 2025
According to the ICCO Cocoa Market Report3 , cocoa prices continued their downward trend in October 2025, reflecting market optimism for the 2025/26 main crop. The December 2025 contract (DEC-25), representing the new crop, became the nearby contract, shifting market focus to the positive prospects of the upcoming season.
Nearby London cocoa futures fluctuated between US$5,478–6,320/MT, closing the month at US$5,808/MT, while New York ranged between US$5,809–6,686/MT, ending at US$6,133/MT. This contrasts with October 2024, when supply tightness drove prices higher (London DEC-24 +11%, New York DEC-24 +4%).
Source 3 : (ICCO Cocoa Market Report)
The trend in 2025 is supported by an improved global crop outlook:
- West Africa
Ghana commenced its season in August 2025 and Côte d’Ivoire launched its main crop in October.
Despite optimism, cumulative Côte d’Ivoire port arrivals were sluggish at 411,000 MT, down 9.7% YoY, likely reflecting stock-building by processors prioritizing high-quality beans.
- Global Demand
Q3 2025 grindings showed Asia declining 17.1% YoY, Europe down 4.8%, and North America up 3.2%, partly due to reporting changes. Weak arrivals and muted demand contributed to the bearish tone in October.
While the overall outlook is positive, market participants should monitor seasonal uncertainties, regulatory developments (EUDR), and potential weather disruptions, such as harmattan winds, which could alter the supply-demand balance and influence prices.
For MENA manufacturers, this emphasizes the value of flexible cocoa formulations, alternative sourcing, and bakery solutions that deliver indulgence sustainably.
For technical guidance, feel free to reach out to our bakery ingredients application experts at bcs@foodspecialities.com.