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COCOA MARKET REPORT – Q4 2024

This year has seen significant volatility in cocoa prices, reflecting a dynamic market environment.

The DEC-2024 contract peaked at £8,218 per metric tonne in April—almost three times its value at the start of the season (£2,741 per metric tonne as of October 2023). Prices have since stabilized, fluctuating between £5,000 and £5,700 per metric tonne. Such movements highlight the complexities of the cocoa supply chain and the factors influencing pricing.

Key Market Dynamics:
  • Ghana’s fixed farm gate price: 48,000 cedis per metric ton
  • Côte d’Ivoire’s fixed farm gate price: 1,800,000 CFA Francs per metric ton
  • Living Income Differential (LID): US$400 per metric ton premium ensuring farmer equity.

 

Figure 1: London Cocoa Futures Price Movements – DEC-2024 Contract. This chart can visually display the sharp price increase from £2,741 per metric tonne in October 2023 to its April 2024 peak, followed by the stabilization between £5,000-£5,700.

 

Pricing Strategies and Market Impact:

The Conseil du Café-Cacao (CCC) and the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) employ a self-financing price stabilization policy that
ensures:

  • Protection from Intra-Season Price Volatility: Fixed farm gate prices safeguard farmers against sudden market changes.
  • Fair Share for Farmers: Buyers pay prices reflective of export licenses and forward contracts negotiated in advance, supplemented by the LID.

For manufacturers, understanding these pricing dynamics is essential for strategic planning. Forward contracts and export licenses, negotiated a season ahead, form the foundation of pricing stability but also highlight the need for adaptive sourcing strategies.

Contact us at bcs@foodspecialities.com for a deeper analysis of how these market dynamics might influence your cocoa sourcing needs.2

 

Source : 2 https://www.icco.org/wp-content/uploads/Cocoa-Market-Report-September-2024.pdf

 

Figure 2: Farm Gate Price Comparison Table: Comparing Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire farm gate prices alongside the LID premium for transparency.

This dual-pricing structure enables consistency in farmer revenues while accounting for global demand peaks during key consumption seasons (Halloween, Christmas, Valentine’s Day, and Easter).