COCOA MARKET REPORT - Q3 2025
Market participants are paying close attention to the progress of the ongoing mid-crop season, which will play a crucial role in shaping the global cocoa balance for 2024/25.
Early in the season, cocoa arrivals showed a year-on-year increase. As of 29 June 2025, Reuters reported that cumulative arrivals in Côte d’Ivoire reached 1.613 million tonnes, up 1.1% compared to the same period last season. While this initially seemed like a positive signal, it also raised concerns.
Stakeholders are now questioning the reliability of arrival data as a proxy for real production. Several factors are being scrutinized:
• Quality concerns: Some cocoa beans rejected by exporters for poor quality may be accepted by others, possibly leading to double counting.
• Truck loading assumptions: Arrival estimates based on truck deliveries may be overestimated if actual truck loads are lighter than assumed.
These concerns have made it clear that arrivals data may not fully reflect true crop output, prompting the industry to take a closer look at bean quality and logistics.
(Source1: https://www.icco.org/)
June Cocoa Prices: A Month of Highs and Lows1
Cocoa prices in June 2025 saw notable swings, influenced by shifting supply signals and weather developments.
• At the beginning of the month, cocoa prices rose sharply. In London, prices climbed by 8%, from US$8,566 to US$9,245/tonne. In New York, they jumped from US$9,436 to US$10,175/tonne.
• This early rally was driven by short-term supply concerns, mainly due to lower-than-expected arrivals from Côte d’Ivoire.
However, by mid-June, the trend reversed:
• Improved rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana boosted expectations for the 2025/26 main crop, easing market fears.
• Higher output from non-West African origins like Latin America also contributed to supply optimism.
• As a result, prices dropped significantly. In London, cocoa fell by 16% to US$7,806/tonne, while in New York it declined by 18% to US$8,444/tonne.
Toward the end of the month, concerns began to rise again:
• Excessive rainfall raised the risk of black pod disease, a serious fungal infection that can damage cocoa yields.
• This helped stabilize cocoa prices, preventing a further drop as traders remained cautious about potential crop damage in West Africa.
Key Takeaway
Cocoa markets in June were marked by high volatility. Early concerns over low arrivals boosted prices, but these gains were short-lived as optimism around the next crop took over. As weather conditions continue to shift and as doubts remain around the accuracy of arrival data, the mid-crop season will be critical in determining where cocoa prices go next.
