Crop Updates & Market Dynamics

ORANGE CROP

Brazil

Production for the 2021/22 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt in Brazil is forecast at 294.17 million boxes, says a recent report by Fundecitrus. The current projection represents an increase of 9.51% on the final forecast of 268.63 million boxes for the previous crop. The forthcoming crop should have ‘bounced back’ to higher levels from the previous crop, by adverse climatic conditions, particularly a lack of rainfall, has held back production.

Mexico

Local industry sources in Mexico say the situation there is relatively unchanged from last month. The 2020/21 crop is now over and estimations on production are between 59-60 million boxes. Output was cut-back by a freeze in the northern regions, but there are no reports of tree damage and so at this stage the 2021/22 crop is not expected to be impacted.

Florida, USA

The April citrus forecast presented by the United States Department of Agriculture projected a month over month decrease in the production of Florida Oranges and Grapefruit for the 2020-21 season. The report predicted a 7% decrease for Florida Orange production, from 55.5 million boxes to 51.7 million boxes. “While we expect production to vary from season to season, today’s forecast provides an important reminder that we cannot take this industry for granted. Growers need our support so that they may continue to produce great-tasting Florida Citrus and support the small communities where citrus is grown” said Shannon Shepp, Executive Director of the Florida Department of Citrus.

GRAPE CROP

SPAIN

The Spanish Grape crops are developing naturally and smoothly. If the weather conditions do not adversely affect the harvest, good production is expected during the months of August and September.

Due to the strong demand for the product during this season, the availability of raw material for the production of juices is very limited and prices have risen considerably.

From January 2021 to July 2021 there has been a high level of demand for products from markets that are traditionally supplied from Argentina.

Nobody knows how the new campaign in Spain will develop, but everything indicates that prices will be much higher than those we have seen in this current 2020-21 season.

ARGENTINA

The 2021 grape crop in Argentina is almost finished. Production of juice concentrate is expected to be between 115,000-12,000 MT – around 10% below last year’s output.

The pandemic has presented no problems regarding picking and processing, but there are some problems sourcing containers at the ports.

Raw materials were relatively expensive during the crop and this is reflected in offers for concentrate which are between USD1500-1700 / MT 68 brix white FOB Buenos Aires in drums, compared with USD1550-1600 / MT last month.

Both Argentina and Chile are expected to pack only limited quantities of red concentrate this season. Producers in Argentina say that demand has been slow due to the higher pricing and concede that buyers could probably find cheaper juice in Europe. They add that they have lost sales in their traditional markets of the US and Canada for this reason.

Grape juice concentrate exports from Argentina so far this year are at 22,800 MT

(January-March 2021), against 27,500 MT during the same period in 2020.

PINEAPPLE CROP

The summer pineapple crop in Thailand peaked around the middle of June, but local processors say that the deliveries of fruit to plants are low. At this time of year, the large processors could expect to receive 1000 MT of fruit everyday, but would be lucky to receive 200 MT per day at the moment.

The majority of stocks in Thailand are reportedly already allocated. Thai producers are also having to deal with the chaotic shipping industry. Analysts say the shipping companies lost a lot of money during the first 12 months of the pandemic and are now keen to regain the lost revenue.

There are limited free stocks for prompt shipment from Costa Rica and other region like Indonesia.

MANGO CROP

Totapuri

The 2021 Totapuri crop in India has commenced and Totapuri puree production is expected to be around 250,000 MT, similar to 2020. But production of
Totapuri concentrate is expected to be around
30,000 MT, which is significantly higher than last year. There are no carry-over stocks from 2020 and new crop stocks will be available from the middle of June. Demand has reportedly been buoyant and the main importers are Europe, Middle East and India.

Alphonso & Kesar

The Alphonso crop in Western India has recently been hit by cyclone Tauktae which interrupted harvesting. However, the production of Alphonso mango has not been severely affected but Alphonso puree production is lower than expected.

Demand for the new crop of Alphonso mango puree has been strong, particularly from Europe, the Middle East and South-East Asia.

Meanwhile, the Kesar mango crop in Saurashtra was reportedly destroyed, one of the key growing regions of India.

APPLE CROP

In Poland, Apple processing is still continuing from cold store supplies. Industry sources say that there were 99,000 MT of fruit on hand at the beginning of May, compared with 163,000 MT at the same time last year. For this reason, they suggest that the supply of apples could be depleted within two months.

In spite of the frosts in Poland in April, growing conditions have been relatively favorable so far. A strong looking bloom last month has resulted in expectations of a good crop in 2021. Although, analysts are quick to point out that it is still early and that they will have a better idea next month. The main factor that needs to be determined is the strength of the ‘June drop’ – there is typically a fruit drop each June and so producers need to see how much fruit is lost from the trees before they can give a better estimate on the next crop. The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) will release an official forecast on

the global apple production through at Prognosfruit conference in August 2021.

In China, spring production has been very limited. The main issue with China is the high freight rates and poor availability of containers – a situation that is not expected to ease in the near term.

TOMATO CROP

Portugal

Planting of the Portuguese tomato crop is now finished after a few interruptions due to rain. The forecast remains at 1.4 million MT.

Spain

While transplanting is now finished in Andalusia and in Extremadura, it continues in the North of the country. Despite the low water availability in Andalusia, the surfaces planted are higher than expected so the forecast is now raised to
3.1 million MT.

California

The official forecast was released by USDA on 28th May 2021. It reduced the expectations of volume by 400,000 short tons and surfaces by 9000 acres, with 11.6 million short tons (10.52 million MT) of processing tomatoes, and 231,000 acres (93,300 hectares) now expected. The temperatures are currently very high so some of the late planting operations are currently delayed.

USA Outside California

The outlook is currently very good. Planting started with a small delay due to cold and wet weather. The Midwest planting is on schedule and planning for a harvest similar to last year. There are no long-term weather or climate related challenges like in California:the Midwest experiences rain and thunderstorms throughout the growing season that on occasion will affect part of the crop. Tonnage and acre estimates remain unchanged from before at 500,000 short tons (453,000 MT) and 14,700 acres (59,400 hectares).

Chile

The final volume of production was already reported at 1,174,000 MT from 12,230 hectares.

Despite rain at the beginning of the harvest in January
and February, which affected the final yield and reduced slightly the total volume, it was a very good year.
Estimated average field yield was about 95 MT / Hct at country level, when it could have been above 100 MT / Hct.

There is concern about the permanent drought but there
has been a significant growth of drip irrigation in recent years, with 75% of the surface now compared to 30% five years ago. Production in 2022 is currently expected to be at a similar level.

China

The transplanting work is progressing smoothly and has been completed. The estimate remains at 4.8 million MT.